The Fed Kemungkinan Akan Menunda Pemotongan Suku Bunga

Bernanke May Halt Rate Cuts, Shift Focus to Inflation Concern

By Steve Matthews


June 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may signal today that inflation is starting to replace a recession and the credit crunch as the biggest risk facing the economy.

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues are laying the groundwork for a policy shift after oil prices doubled in the past year and inflation exceeded 4 percent. At the same time, they may be reluctant to go too far because the economy has yet to shake off the credit crunch and bank losses are deepening.

The Federal Open Market Committee will leave the benchmark interest rate at 2 percent today, ending the fastest series of reductions in two decades, according to all 102 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

``They are going to lean a bit more to inflation risks than growth risks, and may provide a hint they could hike rates down the road,'' said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. ``They will signal their concern in a subtle way, not explicitly. They don't want to have a statement that would tie their hands.''

Today's statement is scheduled for about 2:15 p.m. in Washington. Officials may say their past actions are helping sustain growth, while price increases might take time to moderate, Fed watchers said.

Fed governors and district-bank presidents are bringing new quarterly forecasts to the meeting, which began yesterday in Washington. As recently as April, ``many'' of them foresaw an economic contraction in the first half. That's now unlikely after more than $70 billion of tax rebates helped keep Americans spending and record exports eased the slump in manufacturing.